Idlib, The Last Stand Off in the Syrian Civil War

After the Battle of Bukamal in December, the last major urban area in Iraq and Syria remaining in ISIS hands was liberated.The de facto caliphate of ISIS is gone for good, reducing the group a rag-tag militia terror group fighting a war of attrition in the deserts of Iraq and Syria. War against ISIS, a long and bloody one that lasted nearly three and a half years in both Iraq and Syria, finally came to an end, so the focus of war had to be shifted somewhere else. Guessing where is not hard at all, given the fact that Iraq has already become ISIS-free, (territorial-wise), while in Syria, Idlib remains the largest and strongest rebel held area in Syria. So  Idlib it is, and it was a matter of when rather than if, regarding the commencement of Syrian army operations in the area, which houses a mosaic of various rebel/terror groups, from FSA factions to rebranded Al-Qaeda - now called Hay'at al-Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - Muslim brotherhood-aligned Ahrar al-Sham, Turkistani and Uyghur groups, Uzbek and Caucasian terror groups and even a newly established/growing Wilayet of ISIS, now called Wilayat al-Idlib, which is fighting both opposition forces and the Syrian army.

ISIS’ newly established Idlib Wilayet has its own story. After ISIS was purged from the Eastern Hama countryside by the Syrian army, after a while, remaining ISIS fighters in the area established a new enclave, starting to attack opposition forces in Hama countryside towards Idlib. There seemed to be no will to fight the government forces in the area at first, with ISIS only focusing on the opposition. Now that the SAA has started the battle for Hama, ISIS also expanded its territory simultaneously, but this time, it is also attacking government forces, releasing some graphic images of SAA casualties and also POWs near Abu Duhor air base. But obviously, this ISIS enclave is the least of the SAA’s concerns, as it has neither the manpower nor materiel to have a large impact on the bigger picture, which is the SAA’s battle with opposition forces in Idlib.

For now, the SAA has advanced steadily, with some counterattacks from the opposition, which saw some villages switch hands various times. In recent weeks, the SAA effectively broke the myth that the oppostion is unbeatable in Idlib, or advancing quickly against them is not possible. One wouldn't be blamed for thinking so, remembering the bloody battles and SAA advances in Southern Aleppo towards Idlib in late 2015 and early 2016, which were ultimately halted by opposition forces. But now, Tiger Forces led by General Suheil al-Hassan have - with a successful career behind them in North/East Aleppo countryside, Raqqa, and Deir ez Zor Governorates - proven to be an effective fighting force yet again. Despite heavy resistance, opposition defences have crumbled in the South Eastern Idlib countryside and also South Western Aleppo country side, where only a few KMs are separating government forces from besieging/clearing an area including at least a dozen villages.

The situation in SW Aleppo now looks like this:

And in NE Hama, SE Idlib, things are like this:

 However, there are reports that today ISIS has attacked the right flank of SAA positions, trying to besiege troops near Abu Duhor air base. If true, this makes the above map look like the one below which complicates thing a bit further. The situation is very volatile for now and things may change very quickly. To see how effective ISIS will be in determining the fate of this battle remains to be seen in coming days.

Another important yet symbolic goal is to recapture Abu Duhor air base, which became a symbol of resistance in the Idlib countryside, being besieged for 3 years until rebel/HTS forces captured the base in September, ruthlessly executing 71 SAA POWs on-site. It would be more of a morale boost for the SAA, rather than a strategic win, and indeed a morale collapse for the opposition. The few days and weeks ahead will determine the fate of Idlib, of course if the SAA is willing to go for the Hornet's nest itself, which is Idlib city. Or Perhaps, they could be satisfied with recent gains and after clearing SE Idlib pocket and halt the operation for some time. Iran, Turkey, Russia all play a role in this. Recent Turkish preparations to attack YPG/SDF in Afrin may complicate the already complex situation in Syria even further. It might well affect the Idlib offensive. One could say at the current pace, the fate of the Syrian war could be determined ultimately until no more than half year's end, which is about 160 days ahead. Of course, this Syria, things could slow down dramatically or vice versa, going just too fast.