Iran's Composite Project

Despite the size of the current arsenal, Iran’s operational missiles lack the accuracy needed to be effective against military targets... The missiles could, however, be used to harass fixed-site military bases and naval facilities, but such attacks would only complicate operations... Iran is more likely to use its arsenal for attacks against urban targets to sow terror

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013 

Fast forward to the present, and the Commander of CENTCOM describes Iran's ballistic missile capability to have reached "overmatch", as demonstrated in Operation Martyr Soleimani in January 2020. In the span of a decade Iran has transformed its ballistic missiles from a relatively imprecise - if extensive - strategic capability, into a premiere force capable of executing almost any tactical or strategic strike mission Iran demands of it with pinpoint precision. This transformation - dubbed by analysts as the 'precision project' - consisted of upgrading and evolving existing platforms MaRVs and refined guidance to become more militarily useful against the full array of Iran's targets - airbases, industrial facilities, radars, and even warships.

With the precision project now having brought Iran's BM force up to a high standard, Iran's focus seems to have shifted. Since 2020, Iran has revealed 3 new solid fuel motors using bleeding edge technologies, and they are set to kick off the next revolution in Iran's ballistic missile capability.

Raafe solid rocket motor test

“Iran’s strategic capacity is now enormous. They’ve got overmatch in the theatre—the ability to overwhelm.”

Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie, Commander of US CENTCOM, 2021

From top left, clockwise: Emad, an evolution of the Ghadr MRBM with an accuracy-boosting MaRV. Qiam-2 traces its origins to the Scud but with 1000km range and accuracy to modern Iranian standards. Zolfaqar, the penultimate evolution of the Fateh family, with slightly larger dimensions and an MaRV (Manoeuvrable Re-entry Vehicle) , boosting accuracy and more than doubling range to 700km. 

In February 2020, Iran unveiled the Raad-500 SRBM. By now the high precision and MaRV was all but expected of Iranian BMs. The new feature of Raad-500 was its carbon-filament wound solid rocket motor casing named Zohair. Carbon-filament winding is a production technique that winds carbon filaments to produce extremely light and strong tubes. This method was proposed as an upgrade for the American Space Shuttle's Solid Rocket Boosters. 

With this technology, Raad-500's Zohair motor was able provide double the range of the early Fateh-110 variants, but in smaller dimensions and even weighing half of its older counterpart. Iran also claimed the production costs were halved. The reduced weight and size would make Raad-500 easier to store and more tactically flexible - it could be carried on more mobile platforms, or in larger numbers on existing TELs. An air-launched variant could provide similar capability to that offered by the Kh-47M2 Khinzal. Such a missile could be carried in pairs on existing IRGC and IRIAF aircraft like the Su-22/24, or possibly even on Flankers that Iran is interested in purchasing.

Top: Zohair solid rocket motor during Carbon-Filament winding manufacturing process. Bottom: Resulting pattern showing through skin of Raad-500

Unveiled simultaneously with Raad-500 was the Salman rocket motor. This used similar production techniques to Zohair, but also included another new technology for Iran - a flex-nozzle, aka gimballed thrust vectoring. This capability allowed Salman to be used as an upper stage on the Qased SLV in April 2020, which launched put Iran's first military satellite into orbit. Gimballed thrust is much more efficient than other TVC methods like jet vanes (used on the Sejjil MRBM).

Salman's flex nozzle in action

Now Iran has unveiled Raafe, which combines the technologies of Zohair and Salman. It has a carbon-filament wound case and a flex-nozzle TVC system. It has been unveiled as an SLV booster for the IRGC's space program, likely as a first-stage for a light SLV or a second stage for a heavier SLV. It could even be used in a first- and second-stage layout as seen in the DIO's Zuljanah SLV, made for the civilian space agency. This would be much more powerful than the Qased SLV's first stage, which is a modified Ghadr MRBM booster. It would shorten preparation time even further, which is ideal for a military space program that likes to stay out of sight of prying eyes. For the IRGC specifically, solid-fuel SLVs are preferable as they allow development of a 'dual-use' SLV that can easily and quickly be adapted to a long-range missile. A liquid-fuel SLV with similar performance would require time to fuel, making it unsuitable for conversion to a missile.

Raafe therefore represents another effort to circumvent Iran's self-imposed 2000km missile range limit. It remains to be seen if this restriction is real or just a way to temper European fears of Iran's missile program. It's unlikely that the Iranian leadership doesn't know the IRGC's true intentions in developing a solid-fuel SLV. The previous example of longer range development came under Khorramshahr, which was much more powerful than Iran's existing MRBMs and was given an 1800kg warhead to keep its range down to 2000km. Raafe is likely to possess even higher performance, which is why it has been presented as an SLV motor. Raafe has similar diameter to Iran's current solid-fuel MRBM, Sejjil, which suffers from high weight due to the need to contain the stresses of a solid-fuel motor with the materials available to Iran in the late-2000s, likely high-grade steel. This is in contrast to Iran's liquid-fuel MRBMs which have been lightened using aluminium. Raafe meanwhile, is sure to weigh much less than Sejjil while outputting even higher thrust. It's entirely possible that it could reach the same range as the two-stage Sejjil using just one stage. With a more complex arrangement it's possible for IRBM or even ICBM ranges to be reached.

Like Raad-500 with SRBMs, Raafe could improve tactical flexibility of Iranian MRBMs, the majority of which cannot venture very far from bases due to fuelling requirements. In MRBM form, Raafe could have much more positional freedom and take less time to prepare, making it more survivable and allowing for less warning to adversaries. This could make it highly suitable as a long-range ASBM, especially if it can be fitted to lighter, possibly offroad launchers such as the IRGC's unnamed 8x8 offroad TEL. If this TEL is capable of carrying 2x Zolfaqar/Dezful missiles weighing in excess of 9 tons in total, it's feasible that it could carry a single-stage Raafe ASBM. There are also heavier platforms available in the form of the DIO's Zafar and Zoljanah trucks.

Given the pace of advancement and precedent from the 'precision project', Iran's 'composite project' is sure to result in tangible improvements in Iran's missile capability even within its current boundaries. Beyond that, it forms the basis of Iran's tactic of creating latent capabilities - as is theorised in the direction of the nuclear program - for rapid conversion into realised capabilities. Western missile experts assess that Iran can make an ICBM "anytime" it wants. With the composite project, there is little left to the imagination about what that ICBM would look like.