This blog post has been updated. If you have already read the initial part, please scroll down to the most recent update from 25 AUG 2020.
For reasons outlined in my previous post, this blog post will be used for live* coverage (via frequent updates) of Iran's Defence Industry Day (from now on I'll refer to it as DID), something I would normally do in Twitter threads. Feel free to share this post, it will be updated frequently*.
*Due to personal commitments I was not able to provide live coverage. There is only 1 update to this post and it will stay the only update, but it is very detailed and I hope you enjoy it.
DID is one of the biggest annual events for Iranian military technology. Last year's DID saw the long-awaited unveiling of the Bavar-373 long range SAM system, which I wrote about in a blog post.
18 AUG
First a video to pull apart. It's not DID yet, but evidently Iranian Journos can't wait to show off the footage they've been given. This is from a reporter on Farsnews' Security and Defence desk, and shows off a variety of cruise missiles.
Interesting (though perhaps not new) was footage of the air launched version of Ghader, a turbojet-powered, 200 km range Anti-ship cruise missile usually launched from shore or surface vessels. On the F-4, it is launched from the outermost pylon, which is usually reserved for external fuel tanks. Iranian F-4s are rarely seen flying without their EFTs. So with the missile on those pylons, The F-4s would be limited to the Persian Gulf area, somewhat diminishing the advantage of aircraft-borne ASCMs - extended reach on a relatively survivable platform. They are likely intended for use in the Persian Gulf, where the aircraft can be close to their airbases.
In similar vein, an air-launched version of Nasr was shown. Nasr is solid-fuel rocket powered, and its surface-launched version has a 35km range.
Some footage of a surface-launched Ghadir impacting a target on the ground likely simulating a surface vessel. It's possible that due to Ghadir's long range (it is essentially a 300 km-range Ghader), the test had to be conducted on land rather than at sea. Note: The booster is big enough to be conformal to the missile's diameter (likely due to the missiles' weight), whereas for other Iranian ASCMs the booster typically has a smaller diameter at least in some sections, compared to the main missile body.
There was a brief glimpse of what looked like a slightly shorter than remembered Soumar LACM, which is lacking a booster - implying an air-launched missile. It remains to be seen if it is carried by the IRIAF's Su-24s and F-4s, or the IRGC-ASF Su-22s.
The 'Hoot' Supercavitating torpedo had another showing.
The most intriguing clip was one showing a missile that launches out of an erected canister poking out of the water, and is seemingly spin stabilised. No information has been given about this missile, and it is unclear how the canister is in the water. Due to its size, it may be from a partially submerged test vehicle, but likely not a submarine. It should be noted that the launch is not vertical, but diagonal. It is at least partially distinct from Iran's Jask-2 (Nasr) submarine-launched missile, which is launched from a torpedo tube.
UPDATE: 25 AUG
This DID is a missile bonanza. The main headline grabbers were the 'Shahid Hajj Qassem' Ballistic missile (named after Martyr Qassem Soleimani) and the 'Shahid Abu Mahdi' long-range anti-ship cruise missile. A new turbofan engine also slipped under the radar...
Shahid Hajj Qassem Missile
This is a big deal. It is a completely new solid fuel missile design from Iran, with a diameter
estimated at 90cm. This is totally distinct from the 61cm and 68cm of the Fateh and Zolfaqar variants, and much smaller than the 125cm of the Sejjil MRBM.
Specifications of the missile have been given by a Farsnews:
Range: 1400 km*
Reentry Speed: Mach 12
Impact Speed: Mach 5
Length: 11 metres
Weight: 7 tons
Warhead weight: 500 kg
*It has been stated that the missile's range is "extendable" to 1800 km.
It's quite a remarkable achievement. A missile the same size as a Scud-B but with over 4.5x the range. Added to that, it's incredibly light at just 7 tons, has an accurate warhead, and is solid fuelled.
It even compares favourably to the Sejjil missile. That has a 2000 km range, but weighs 23 tons, is ~35cm wider and 7 metres taller. It begs the question what the role of Sejjil missile will be when this missile has the range to cover Israel from Eastern Iran, while being much smaller and likely cheaper than Sejjil.
So how does the Shahid Hajj Qassem missile (let's call it SHQ from now) achieve this incredible weight and performance? From the outside, its construction looks similar as Dezful, likely high-grade steel or composite. However, it lacks the characteristic "weaving" shown in the carbon-filament case of the Raad-500 missile, which weighs just 1750kg. Furthermore, the use of a 500kg warhead for a "strategic" missile is another weight saving - Iran's strategic range missiles like Ghadr and Sejjil typically have at least 650kg warheads. Evidently Iran has prioritised accuracy for SHQ.
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Top: 'Shahid Hajj Qassem' missile. Middle: Dezful missile. Bottom: Raad-500 missile with visible weaving
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The use of no less than 8 rear fins for stabilisation is a reflection of this severe weight reduction, and the use of a lighter warhead than is typical for this size of missile.
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| As is now customary with new Iranian missiles, incredible accuracy is displayed. Iran claims the impact speed is Mach 5, enough to cause serious damage to any target in spite of the tactical-size 500kg warhead. |
Possibly the most significant aspect of the SHQ missile is the launch profile. Unlike Iran's traditional strategic missiles, it is not launched vertically. It is launched in the same manner as Iran's Fateh and Zolfaqar series of tactical missiles. It even shares an almost identical warhead with the Zolfaqar and Dezful missiles. The Fateh and Zolfaqar series are quasi-ballistic missiles, and while it is not guaranteed, it is likely that SHQ also flies a quasi-ballistic "depressed" profile.
This could be a major coup for Iran's efforts to circumvent or even engage enemy ABM systems. Up until now, systems like SM-3 and Arrow-3 exo-atmospheric interceptors have posed a serious threat to Iran's strategic missiles, which were all "classic" BMs that flew out of the atmosphere. Now Iran has a missile that can fly under those interceptors' engagement profiles - the fragility of their KVs (Kill Vehicles) means they cannot withstand the stresses of high-speed atmospheric flight.
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Arrow-3 and SM-3 are formidable exo-atmospheric interceptors. However, their fragile KV design limits them to the relative vacuum of space.
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While there is uncertainty on its exact engagement envelope, THAAD also has claimed limited endo-atmospheric capabilities. It may be that Iran hopes to use SHQ's immense energy (claimed Mach 12 "reentry" speed) to conduct manoeuvres with it's MaRV to defeat the THAAD interceptor.
As for the "extendable" 1800 km range - the precise meaning is unclear. Some have speculated that this hints at a future lighter version with an advanced construction similar to Raad-500. It is also possible that an extended range variant would replace the 8 static rear fins with moveable ones, and launch vertically into a more efficient, classic ballistic trajectory that leaves the atmosphere. However, this would sacrifice the missile's resistance to exo-atmospheric interceptors.
Shahid Abu Mahdi Missile
There has been a considerable amount of confusion about this missile. It is very similar to the Soumar and especially Hoveyzeh missiles. It is essentially an anti-ship version of Hoveyzeh, which is a 1300 km range, turbojet powered LACM. Hoveyzeh itself is a turbojet version of the 2000 km Soumar which uses a more efficient turbofan engine to attain greater range.
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The 'Shahid Abu Mahdi' missile launching from a container, with gap for engine.
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| Top: Shahid Abu Mahdi missile. Bottom: Hoveyzeh missile |
The main difference is in range - The anti-ship version has a 1000 km range vs the Hoveyzeh's 1300 km. That could be a result of any mixture of different (lower) flight profile, heavier/different warheads, and the use of a possibly heavier guidance section from the ARH seeker required to target ships, though this would take the place of a TERCOM system. Such a missile extends Iran's anti-ship cruise missile range out to 1000 km. The Commander of the IRIN Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi
has said that the IRIN will receive the new anti-ship missile, so it's possible that it could be mounted on Iranian surface vessels in future. It is worth noting that under the Trump administration, US Aircraft Carriers have typically avoided entering the Persian Gulf, preferring to stay in the Arabian Sea about 400 km south of Iran's coasts (possibly to avoid the 300 km range Ghadir ASCM and Khalije Fars ASBM). They are well within range of the Abu Mahdi missile.
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| Map of Shahid Abu Mahdi missile range over the Arabian Sea from Chabahar. |
The greatest challenge for employment of this missile will be targeting. Unlike ballistic missiles, At typical subsonic cruise missile speeds, such a missile would take over an hour to reach its maximum range. A Nimitz-class carrier could have changed its position by over 58 km in that time, and thus could be anywhere in an over ~10,000 km² area around its initial position. Because of this speed limitation, the missile requires multiple guidance updates during the missile's flight-time. Iran's P-3 Orion Maritime Patrol aircraft are too dated and vulnerable to be used to track the carrier, and a satellite constellation is still a ways off for Iran. The most realistic options for Iran are developing a maritime patrol UAV, or installing long range radar systems on its coast - which may have already been accomplished given Iran's work on OTH radars. With proper targeting, the Abu Mahdi missile can be a dangerous area denial weapon.
Jahesh-700 Turbofan
Iran also revealed the Jahesh-700 turbofan engine, which appears to be a copy of the Williams FJ-33. The Director of Iran's Aviation Industries Organisation (IAIO) says that it produces 1,500 lbf of thrust (which lines up with the FJ-33's figures) and
goes on to talk a lot about its potential use as a UAV engine. This makes sense as it is too large and powerful to be used in a cruise missile. However, engines of the FJ-33's thrust class are not used in military UAVs. The most obvious candidate for Jahesh-700 would be Iran's RQ-170 copy, but the original RQ-170 is thought to be powered by an engine producing at least 3,500 lbf of thrust. The FJ-33 is used (mostly in a twin-engine configuration) on very light private jets. Turboprops are more suited for the type of UAVs that such an engine could power.
Of course, Iran's unconventional approach to UAV design could throw up some surprises. But the most important thing to take away from the Jahesh-700 is that Iran can now domestically produce a relatively modern (the FJ-33 was first run in 1998) turbofan, in contrast to the turbojets it has previously used. The technological lessons gained from this development could be used in future larger, more advanced designs.
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Top: Iran's Jahesh-700 Turbofan. Bottom: Williams FJ-33 turbofan.
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Notes
Partly due to personal commitments, this blog post took a significant amount of time for what it is - an overview of a series of unveilings. I typically provide coverage of these sorts of things on
my Twitter, and write long-form articles on my blog for issues that I think demand it. Due to my
shadowban on Twitter (which has now been
partially lifted), I was forced to use my blog to cover this year's DID. I decided to cover the major aspects in detail. However, there are some other things to see at the provided links - a
miniature Fateh-class missile (likely based on the Fajr-4 rocket) called "Fath", and a whole bunch of new drone
images and
video.
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