A bit over a week ago Nikki Haley held what can only be described as a dog and pony show, displaying the wreckage of 2 Burkan-2H missiles - placed next to each other for effect. It all did seem very theatrical, but I tried to keep my silence until the experts had a look at it. And by experts, I mean those folks at ArmsControlWonk, who also covered the story of the failures of Saudi missile defences in intercepting this missile a while ago.
I won't go over the whole analysis, which you can and probably have read by yourself already, but it goes something like this. Fuel ports, construction techniques/materials, navigation systems, absence of fins, and various branding give it away.
And of course, a short time after this unveiling by Haley, the Houthis just decide to go the whole way and release images which seal the deal.
And before you say it, no. The sandal wearing Houthis did not cook up a finless missile with that warhead shape from some 1980s/90s Scuds that hits just a kilometre from a major airport terminal. Even with Iranian expertise they could not fabricate that sort of advanced flight control software and hardware and that shape of warhead. All the evidence points to Iran sending a Qiam in bits and pieces to Yemen (easier to smuggle), so the Houthis could weld them together (very poorly) and fire it off.
I won't go over the whole analysis, which you can and probably have read by yourself already, but it goes something like this. Fuel ports, construction techniques/materials, navigation systems, absence of fins, and various branding give it away.
And of course, a short time after this unveiling by Haley, the Houthis just decide to go the whole way and release images which seal the deal.
And before you say it, no. The sandal wearing Houthis did not cook up a finless missile with that warhead shape from some 1980s/90s Scuds that hits just a kilometre from a major airport terminal. Even with Iranian expertise they could not fabricate that sort of advanced flight control software and hardware and that shape of warhead. All the evidence points to Iran sending a Qiam in bits and pieces to Yemen (easier to smuggle), so the Houthis could weld them together (very poorly) and fire it off.
What does this all mean?
I can only think Iran and the IRGC don't care what the Saudis and Americans think now. First the Soumar and now the Qiam (being publicised very openly) being sent to the Houthis indicate a bold new strategy to try and keep Yemen a pain in Saudi's backside for as long and as expensively as possible, by exploiting MBS' uncanny ability to shoot himself in the foot when reacting to Iranian regional influence.
I think we can put the conspiracy theories behind us, that some rogue commander decided to send advanced systems to the Houthis. This is a strategy, though I don't altogether see myself getting behind it, because it seems too risky in my opinion. It is unlike Iran to act so boldly.
A positive of this is that we learnt a few technical things about the Qiam. It is surprisingly accurate, even when thrown together by a rag tag militia using poor welding. It has a separating warhead, which I assumed only Iran's most modern missiles, like the Emad and Zolfaqar had. Finally, that separating warhead allowed it to avoid interception by 5 Saudi Patriot missiles, though in fairness they were using the older PAC-2 missile.
Links:
All of these are must-read/must-listen-to pieces.
And finally, Merry Christmas to any of my readers who celebrate it.
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