Trump's Speech Couldn't Have Gone Better

I've spent a few days "observing" (being lazy about) the reaction to Trump's speech and honestly it was by far among the biggest fiascoes of Trump's entire administration.



And the reaction has been exactly what we have been hoping for.

Iran

Everyone knows that Trump's ridiculous notion that he cares for the Iranian people has been largely dismissed. But this speech finally put the nail in the coffin. Partly the designation in all but name of the IRGC as a terror organisation, which drew a very popular condemning tweet from FM Zarif, and even anti-IR Iranians online opposed it. But of course the biggest one was the "Arabian Gulf" comment, which drew universal condemnation from Iranians from LA to Qom, religious or secular, apolitical or nationalist. Just 2 hours after Trump made a post on Instagram about his speech, it had amassed 400,000 comments. At the time of writing, that post has 2.7 million comments. 

Rouhani's quick reaction was measured and sought to highlight the key weaknesses of Trump's speech. He was able to seem like the "bigger man" both with his measured response, and by highlighting the childishness and crudeness of Trump's insults.

Europe

Europe's reaction was by far the most impressive, more than I was expecting by a long shot.

We always knew Europe would be pissed if Trump "decertified" the JCPOA that Europe has been fighting over 10 years for. This was clear by the statements of various EU officials prior to the speech, especially at the UNGA, with previously hawkish France giving solid support to the deal.

Minutes after Trump's speech, the leaders of France, Britain, and Germany gave out a joint statement publicly supporting the JCPOA and opposing Trump's position. Such a joint statement has been described as unprecedented, especially since it was published as a statement on behalf of the EU, which the UK is in the process of leaving. 

High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, also gave a stinging speech denouncing Trump's position. I say stinging because she looks and sounds exceedingly pissed off.

There is even the possibility of a Presidential visit by Emmanuel Macron at the invite of Rouhani, the first state visit by France since 1976. The offer is still being "considered", but its existence was confirmed by the Elysee Presidential office. Such a move would further shore up political opposition to Trump's anti-JCPOA moves, especially if any major trade or investment deals are signed.

Implications

For now, there will be little to no impact on the JCPOA. Congress has 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions. I believe European lobbying, coupled with Congress' general hatred of Trump, will prevent such a thing from happening. The sanctions on the IRGC will probably not have much impact. The IRGC is already a red light for foreign firms investing in Iran, yet Iran has still managed a rapid recovery of its economy, and investment is flowing.

The rest of Trump's measures, like pushing for further human rights and ballistic missile sanctions, are effectively useless. The first will be toothless by its very nature, and the second will be toothless because Iran's only partner in ballistic missiles is North Korea, and they don't care about sanctions.

Conclusion

Trump's speech unified Iranians and Europeans against Trump's America, delegitimising American foreign policy (at the very least while Trump is in charge), improving Iran's standing in the world, all the while achieving nothing of any real substance in Trump's favour. 

It couldn't have gone better.