As I'm sure you have all heard, it is looking very likely that Trump will decertify the JCPOA by the 15th October deadline. I say only very likely because there is still a small chance that his advisers and other officials could convince him otherwise... but I doubt it.
Most analysts have said that Trump will decertify and kick the deal for congress to deal with. This is probably to avoid having to keep certifying it every 90 days - which he clearly is personally against - and to pass the blame on to congress if it is decided the US will "pull out" of the accord.
I think congress will keep the deal. The republicans' hate for Trump rivals their hate for the JCPOA. There have also been a few lower key events happening around congress. For example, SecDef Mattis was asked by senators - who, remember, are probably going to make the decision to leave the deal or not soon - just a few days ago if he believed the JCPOA was in the national security interests of the US. A serious "Yes, senator, I do" followed, after a noticeable pause.
Video (Twitter)
This illustrates how bluntly and directly at odds Trump's cabinet are with his crazy policies. Various reports talk of strained relations between the President and his advisers. Trump even challenged Tillerson to an IQ test. I assume the winner would get a gold encrusted, #MAGA branded gold club. With extra small golfing gloves.
Also recently white house officials - not including Trump - have given classified briefings to congress on Trump's plans for the nuclear deal. It is widely speculated these briefings were informing congress of Trump's decertification plans.
There is enough international pressure on congress to keep the deal. Various officials from Britain, Germany, and the wider EU have backed the JCPOA against Trump. Most notably, France's new, less hardline President Macron reaffirmed France's commitment to the JCPOA on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
But let us assume for a moment that congress votes for new sanctions. Rouhani and Zarif have already said Iran will continue to abide by the deal if the US quits. Khamenei's relative silence seems to imply a similar view. The interesting part will be the European response. On the one hand, they are still US sanctions, and no European company in their right mind would choose Iran over the US. After all, companies don't need to have political principles. The only option I see if Europe gets some sort of waiver for US sanctions, such that US sanctions would affect US firms only, and foreign firms would still be able to do business with Iran.
The next few days will be intriguing.
Most analysts have said that Trump will decertify and kick the deal for congress to deal with. This is probably to avoid having to keep certifying it every 90 days - which he clearly is personally against - and to pass the blame on to congress if it is decided the US will "pull out" of the accord.
I think congress will keep the deal. The republicans' hate for Trump rivals their hate for the JCPOA. There have also been a few lower key events happening around congress. For example, SecDef Mattis was asked by senators - who, remember, are probably going to make the decision to leave the deal or not soon - just a few days ago if he believed the JCPOA was in the national security interests of the US. A serious "Yes, senator, I do" followed, after a noticeable pause.
Video (Twitter)
This illustrates how bluntly and directly at odds Trump's cabinet are with his crazy policies. Various reports talk of strained relations between the President and his advisers. Trump even challenged Tillerson to an IQ test. I assume the winner would get a gold encrusted, #MAGA branded gold club. With extra small golfing gloves.
Also recently white house officials - not including Trump - have given classified briefings to congress on Trump's plans for the nuclear deal. It is widely speculated these briefings were informing congress of Trump's decertification plans.
There is enough international pressure on congress to keep the deal. Various officials from Britain, Germany, and the wider EU have backed the JCPOA against Trump. Most notably, France's new, less hardline President Macron reaffirmed France's commitment to the JCPOA on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
But let us assume for a moment that congress votes for new sanctions. Rouhani and Zarif have already said Iran will continue to abide by the deal if the US quits. Khamenei's relative silence seems to imply a similar view. The interesting part will be the European response. On the one hand, they are still US sanctions, and no European company in their right mind would choose Iran over the US. After all, companies don't need to have political principles. The only option I see if Europe gets some sort of waiver for US sanctions, such that US sanctions would affect US firms only, and foreign firms would still be able to do business with Iran.
The next few days will be intriguing.
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