Liberation Of Kirkuk Deals Major Blow To Barzani Designs

It's no breaking news to anyone now, unless they have been living in a cave or something. This week, Iraqi security forces, including Iraqi army, counter terrorism units and parts of Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), started their advance in multiple fronts against Kurdish forces - also known as Peshmerga - after various earlier warnings, both before and after the September 25th Kurdish Referendum. 

The results were unexpected even to Iraq experts and observers: Iraqi forces completed one objective after another with lightning speed, securing city of Kirkuk and its surrounding in less than a day. But it wasn't like they fought their way into Kirkuk, an oil rich region which has been a controversial issue between Baghdad and KRG about who should control for years. Iraqi forces met almost no resistance in and around the city. Even Some Kurdish accounts/reporters/analysts were surprised at first about what was happening. This is because before the operation by Iraqi forces, various pictures came from the city showing Kurdish civilians 'ready to defend' against Iraqi forces, and many Peshmerga warning that they would not back off. But the situation that unfolded told another story. Iraqi forces advanced so fast that they captured many areas besides Kirkuk, some for the first time in years.

Now that some days have passed, and the dust has settled, things can be seen more clearly. Apparently, the reason for lightning advance of Iraqi forces was that Peshmerga forces aligned with Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), a party established by Jalal Talabani, who passed away just recently and was a close ally of Iran in different times, had retreated from their positions in and around Kirkuk, allowing Iraqi forces to capture areas at significant speed. Days before, General Qasem Suleimani of the IRGC's Quds Force, was reported to have met with Kurdish and PUK officials in Iraq, perhaps warning them of resisting against coming Iraq government operation and risking losing Iran's support in the future. 

Obviously, PUK officials agreed, given the results few days later, perhaps thinking that there was more harm in losing both Iran's support and men, fighting the Iraqi army in a war that could bring only death and destruction. Earlier, some officials inside the PUK had already criticized Barzani's push for a referendum, risking conflict with Iraq's central government and neighbours. The blame game between the KDP (Barzani's party) and PUK started after Kirkuk fell in Iraqi hands, surprising even Iraq's allies and western countries. I think everyone knew the Iraqi government could take Kirkuk one way or another, but no-one thought it would be in less than a day.

Qasem Suleimani paying respects to former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in Sulaymaniyah

It seems that Iran has played its part well, raising eyebrows especially in western countries. Even though western countries openly supported Iraq's territorial integrity, and some - US included - objected to the Kurdish referendum, they won't be very happy about Iran's role either, for obvious reasons. It seems Baghdad is now more determined to capture all disputed areas from Barzani's Kurdistan, after several warnings beforehand about holding a referendum and its repercussions.

 Israel remains the only country who supports Kurdish independence, not because of its love for Kurds, but for its own interests. An independent Kurdistan in Iraq would ring alarms in 3 other countries, i.e. Iran, Turkey, and Syria who have their own Kurdish populations, 2 of which are open enemies of Israel, while Turkey hasn't had friendliest relations with Israel in past years under Erdogan's rule. Potentially accelerated secession movements in these 3 countries would serve Israel's interests best, distracting them further from focusing on Israel and its policies in ME. In neighbouring Syria, SDF forces - which comprise mostly of Kurdish YPG forces - have already captured huge parts of the north, and take no orders from the embattled Syrian central government in Damascus for some time now, moving much close to an autonomous state, if not independence.

Tehran and Baghdad have disrupted Barzani's plans, at least for now, making Kurdistan's independence prospects dimmer. Iran did warn Barzani multiple times about holding a referendum and parting ways with Baghdad. Barzani's ego was sky high after seeing huge Kurdish support for independence and big rallies in Erbil and other regions of Kurdistan, thinking he will have no trouble becoming an independent country. But this is the Middle East, where everything happening in one country can have big repercussions for its neighbours. Even in democratic Europe, the Catalonian independence from Spain is not going very well since the Spanish government has shown it's ready to go to great lengths to prevent an independent Catalonia, and the rest of the EU countries are not enthusiastic either about the break-up of Spain and establishment of an independent Catalonia.

The coming weeks will be crucial to determine the fate of Kurdistan's independence referendum, and given the speed at which events are unfolding, one can expect anything to happen, for this is the Middle East, the region which besides being the cradle of civilisation, is also the cradle of major unrests and shocking events in the world for some decades.