Tensions Mount As Kurdistan Referendum Nears

Sides are rapidly being picked by relevant countries in the coming Kurdish referendum.

I say coming because let us be honest here, the demands by the Iraqi government and judiciary are going to be ignored. The referendum is scheduled in exactly 1 week.

There was a majority yes vote in the Kurdish parliament.

Obviously, Iran, Turkey and Iraq are all against the referendum. The US, at least publicly, also opposes the referendum. I'm not too sure about their real position. On the one hand, it would be great for them to have an ally that can eagerly and strongly support Kurdish terrorist groups attempting separatism in Iran. On the other hand, most of their allies are against it, especially Turkey, so the optics are super bad in a situation where the US is isolated already. I think Saudi Arabia also has a similar position. 

Israel, notably, supports the Kurdish position, which I put down to them just doing whatever they like as they always do, regardless of what their "allies" think. 

Important Considerations

Obviously Kurdistan has no chance militarily. Iraq has stated its willingness to use military force, which itself is a powerful bit of pressure considering their political advantage. 

Turkey recently conducted military exercises on its border with Kurdistan. Turkey and Iran's Chiefs of Staff also had a historic meeting last month, which might signal a common military strategy.

Turkish M60 Sabra

Interestingly Iran hasn't made any statements detailing military involvement, though I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few in the coming days. It has, however, outlined its full intent to exploit Kurdistan's landlocked status to full effect.

Secretary-General of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) was quoted as saying Iran would:

“draw and end to security and military agreements with that region, and is considered a declaration of the closure of all border routes with Iran.”

Ipso facto, an independent Kurdistan would be an isolated Kurdistan.