Conclusions from Bagheri's Visit to Turkey

So I've finally made a follow up post about the Iranian Chief of Staff's visit to Turkey.

General Bagheri meeting with Sultan Erdogan

There have been no official indications that the purpose of this visit was a discussion of Syria. Iranian state media has exclusively talked about Kurdistan in relation to Bagheri's visit to Turkey. There have been speculations in the media that this is the case. As explained in the previous post about this visit, I think the media is overthinking and/or being sensationalist (the media chasing a headline...? No!) on this one. The foremost reason given for speculations of Iranian-Turkish discussions on Syria is that Bagheri was accompanied by Brig General Mohammad Pakpour, who is the Commander of the IRGC Land Forces. However, while the IRGC is the major Iranian force involved in Syria, it is the Quds Force that is the instrument of this force. And Haj Soleimani did not go to Turkey.

The visit has been marked by repeated Iranian and Turkish statements that they oppose the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum. Iranian state media have highlighted Iran and Turkey's fights against groups like the PKK and PJAK.

Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour

I rather think that Pakpour's presence is greater evidence of Iranian-Turkish cooperation against Kurdish terrorist groups. After all, the IRGC is heavily involved in COIN operations both in Iranian Kurdistan and in Balochistan. The Artesh also contributes, with videos on the internet of Iranian Cobras on their way to and even participating in engagements in Iranian Kurdistan.

The meeting appears to be opening up new opportunities for Iranian-Turkish relations.

"The visit is an indication of new developments in the relations between the two countries as they have entered a new stage," Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qasemi told IRIB

Qasemi also revealed that Iran and Turkey are planning for Erdogan to visit Iran, another indication of new closeness between Iran and Turkey.

In conclusion, it looks like I was right and the mainstream media were wrong, if I put it into such blunt (and narcissistic?) terms. Iran and Turkey look to be organising a common effort to fight terrorism in their respective Kurdish regions, and this specific meeting is not related to Syria. This will increase Iranian-Turkish relations in other areas, and may even result in Turkey moving further away from Saudi Arabia. This is due in part to Saudi's support for various Kurdish groups like the PDKI, PJAK and other non-Kurdish anti-Iranian terrorist groups such as those in Iranian Balochistan and Khuzestan. But also any action that reduces Iranian isolation, especially when it involves strategic cooperation with another major regional power, is sure to draw irk from Saudi Arabia.

So far Turkey and Saudi have already moved further away due to the Qatar crisis. A Turkish partnership with Iran could provoke Saudi into a rash, aggressive decision that is becoming characteristic of the young Mohammad bin Salman. Invading Yemen, cutting relations with Iran, sending an ultimatum to Qatar, and next, cutting relations with Turkey?

OK, it won't go that far, at least I don't think so. But Turkish-Iranian relations are likely to sweeten, while Turkish-Saudi ties sour.