The Race for Deir ez Zor

The race for Deir ez Zoor is on.

The US backed SDF (yellow) and the Syrian govt and its allies (red) are both rapidly advancing on ISIS territory. ISIS is virtually finished, with all their strongholds in both Iraq and Syria liberated. The SDF and SAA are now trying to get to the Eastern border as quickly as possible.

It is speculated that if the SDF reaches the Eastern border first, US airpower may try to cut off Iranian supply flights to Damascus, with the same justifications it used to take down the 2 Shahed-129 UCAVs and a SyAAF Su-22. Capturing large parts of Eastern Syria would also afford the US great bargaining power for any future political settlement.

A major victory that would count towards this race would be breaking the siege of Deir ez Zor. This would grant the Syrian govt a major stronghold - with an airbase - in Eastern Syria that can be an FOB for future gains in Eastern Syria. It can also block SDF gains towards Eastern border towns.

There are currently 3 probable fronts making a push for Deir ez Zor. The northern front, near Raqqa, has SAA tiger forces commanded by Brigadier General Suheil "The Tiger" al-Hassan, and recently met with forces from Hama to cut off ISIS from the entirety of Aleppo province.

Brig. Gen. Suheil al-Hassan, also known as "The Tiger"

The front near Palmyra is manned by the SAA and embedded Russian forces. Palmyra also has strong support from Russian airpower.

The southern front has various militias, and seems to be going for the border regions.

Currently the Palmyra front seems to be the fastest path to Deir ez Zor. It's main path is through the desert with only the town of As Sukhnah and some villages along the way. This region also has strategically important natural gas fields. Though geographically longer than all the other fronts, Russian armour and airpower has a heavy presence here which, combined with the practically direct road to Deir ez Zor makes for fast warfare.

The downside of advancing in desert areas is that ISIS can conduct sweeping desert ambushes in the area so the SAA and allies may have to consolidate their power in the region, which will take time and resources. However, with the SDF making advances in the North, caution may be too conservative. For the SAA to reach Deir ez Zor first, SDF advances would have to be expectedly slow in the populated areas of the Euphrates.

Maps from https://syria.liveuamap.com/
Images from Google
Special thanks to my good friend Amirhossein for information and details, he is @Amirh_91 on Twitter, I suggest you check him out.