Muhammad bin Salman - Saudi's next anti-Iran King

Ever since bin Nayef was removed as Saudi Crown Prince and Muhammad bin Salman promoted to the position, Iranian news agencies have put it as a "soft coup", but I didn't really believe them primarily due to lack of evidence. But this video changed my mind.

MBS is aggressive. As "Minister" of Defence and holding great influence in the Saudi monarchy, he orchestrated the Saudi invasion of Yemen, the Saudi military alliance with a variety of countries, the cutting of diplomatic relations with Iran and Qatar, and the various massive arms purchases like the recent $110 billion deal with Trump.

And since he is young, this sort of aggressive foreign policy is going to be with us for decades. That is nigh on unprecedented given how old previous Saudi monarchs have been.

Clearly, Iran has to respond.

A wide ranging re-armament strategy across all branches of the military (esp. the IRIAF) has to be pursued, and with beefy funding. Most of the military has been left largely unchanged since the 1970s and to a lesser extent the 1990s. MBS seems to think that having a well equipped military is key to countering Iran. A long overdue re-armament would both deter MBS' Saudi and modernise a military that has long been awaiting it. Killing 2 birds with 1 stone.

Even the top tier of Iranian airpower is insufficient against Saudi F-15SA and EF Typhoons

Furthermore, I think the diplomatic stance of Iran has to be altered slightly. Iran has made it clear that it thinks dialogue and "mutual respect". Evidently MBS doesn't think the same. Only recently he said he will work towards battles being fought in Iran. I think Iran knows this, but it still wants to appear as the "good guy" to international opinion. To a large extent I think this is actually working given the crimes Saudi has committed.

But Trump and MBS don't care about that. I think Iran has try to toughen up diplomatically or at least "play it cool". I'm concerned our current stance is being interpreted as a sign of weakness. So make press releases and interviews with diplomats dial down the "dialogue" talk and use more of the condemnation talk, explicitly mentioning Saudi. This has been the case internally at least, with Ayatollah Khamenei and IRGC commanders condemning Saudi in harsh terms. But I think consistency is still important. At the same time, toning down or even belittling public perception of the Saudi "threat" could signal to MBS that his aggressiveness isn't paying off. It is still important to keep the "good guy" thing rolling though, since Europe and Asia is alienated by Trump's controversial policies.

Use of Zolfaqar missiles on ISIS in Deir ez Zor was a powerful statement

There is thankfully some sign that Iran is moving in a direction to increase military capabilities against Saudi Arabia. The recent use of the Zolfaqar missile in Syria has a double meaning:

• That Iran is willing to use conventional military force to retaliate against attacks (especially since Iran blamed Saudi for supporting the ISIS attack on Tehran).
• The use of the Zolfaqar specifically is especially significant given that it appears to be designed to target Saudi, with its range and precision MRV that is thought to be capable of evading Saudi missile defences.