US oil sanctions are looming and it looks very much like Iran will be at the centre of global tensions like in 2012.
The best scenario would be that Iran could just leverage its direct diplomatic relations with major economic partners, using the sheer audacity of the US demands against them, without having to resort to using pressure and coercion. But since when has Iran ever got anything the easy way?
It was revealed just a few days ago that the Trump administration intends to bring Iran's oil exports from over 2.5 million barrels per day to zero.
This uncompromising approach may suit Iran, as previously the US brought imports down by conferring with its allies and agreeing reductions. Now, it wants to force them to eliminate imports with sanctions, which is less likely to induce a cooperative response.
Iran's Options
Again, Iran must look to the Europeans and wait to see what "package" they come up with before November 4. If Iran is still able to export oil and work with European companies, there will be little need for more action. But if the Europeans start to falter, Iran has a number of ways to make its pile on the pressure.
One obvious area Iran can act in is the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. Renewed, shall we say, expressions of displeasure by the IRGC-N, as well as military exercises can reaffirm Iran's ability to respond to US sanctions directly. Iran could also humiliate Trump by not being so generous next time American personnel trespass Iranian waters. If Iran captures US servicemen, it can hold on to them until it gets what it wants. Iran must show that it will not reward US misbehaviour. It is unlikely that this will draw a negative reaction from Europe, as they will see it as a proportional response. Furthermore, any reaction and buildup of pressure will be framed as a response to American actions, and Iran has nothing to lose when it comes to relations with America.
There is evidence that Iran is already going through the motions of this approach. On Tuesday, President Rouhani made an implicit threat of the repercussions of the US cutting Iran's oil exports
There is evidence that Iran is already going through the motions of this approach. On Tuesday, President Rouhani made an implicit threat of the repercussions of the US cutting Iran's oil exports
"The Americans have claimed they want to completely stop Iran's oil exports. They don't understand the meaning of this statement, because it has no meaning for Iranian oil not to be exported, while the region's oil is exported"
He reiterated this in Vienna on Wednesday, and was praised for it by vaunted General Qassem Soleimani. This was then confirmed directly by another IRGC commander, Esmail Kowsari, who said “If Iran’s oil exports are to be prevented, we will not give permission for oil to be exported to the world through the Strait of Hormuz.” The timing and varying severity of the statements clearly show Iran is following the pressure strategy, and directing it at Europe. President Rouhani is currently in Vienna, in talks with European powers, and accompanied by a high level delegation including Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. While at the same time reiterating that Iran will stay in the JCPOA without the US as long as its (economic) interests are met, he also reminded the Europeans of Iran's options in the Persian Gulf. Rouhani's more softened tone compared to the harsher IRGC tone indicates Iran is playing the "good cop, bad cop" routine here, with Rouhani playing the more diplomatic role.
Some may criticise this approach and say that Iran must keep its head down instead of advancing confrontation. But I must again restate that it is imperative that Iran not be meek in the face of US pressure. Showing weakness to the US only invites further hostility, as it will only confirm to them that their strategy is working.
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| Good Cop |
Some may criticise this approach and say that Iran must keep its head down instead of advancing confrontation. But I must again restate that it is imperative that Iran not be meek in the face of US pressure. Showing weakness to the US only invites further hostility, as it will only confirm to them that their strategy is working.
There are also the nuclear responses I outlined in a previous blog post.
The best scenario would be that Iran could just leverage its direct diplomatic relations with major economic partners, using the sheer audacity of the US demands against them, without having to resort to using pressure and coercion. But since when has Iran ever got anything the easy way?
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